The United States declined to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement at its July 1 deadline, a decision that keeps the trade pact alive for now but pushes North America's economic rulebook into a decade of annual reviews that could end with the agreement expiring altogether in 2036. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the decision Wednesday, the sixth anniversary of the pact's entry into force, saying the administration was "not prepared to rubber stamp the agreement" and that "the United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form."
The deadline was written into the agreement itself. The USMCA, negotiated during President Donald Trump's first term as the successor to NAFTA, required the three countries to decide by July 1, 2026 whether to extend it for another 16-year term. Because Washington withheld its consent, the pact instead enters a joint-review mechanism: the parties will now meet every year, and if they cannot agree on revisions during the ten-year window, the agreement terminates automatically in 2036. The administration has also signaled it could seek changes much sooner, saying it wants to "come to a conclusion quickly."
Greer and other officials grounded the decision in the trade balance. The US ran a goods deficit of roughly $197 billion with Mexico and $46 billion with Canada last year, figures the administration says shot up in recent years and reflect shortcomings in how its partners implemented the deal. Trump, who once championed the USMCA as the best trade agreement ever negotiated, has since soured on it, arguing it shields large categories of trade from the tariffs he has applied elsewhere and has failed to bring back manufacturing jobs.
The stakes are considerable. Intraregional trade among the three countries surpassed $1.6 trillion in 2024, up from about $1 trillion when the agreement launched in mid-2020, and the US, Mexico and Canada together represent nearly one-third of global GDP. The pact's tariff-free treatment of qualifying goods is the foundation on which the continent's integrated auto, agriculture and energy supply chains are built.
Business groups reacted with unease. The American Automotive Policy Council, which represents Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, said North American integration delivers "enormous competitive benefits" but urged a "swift and durable resolution that ensures a level playing field and provides long-term certainty." The US Chamber of Commerce and retail groups had pressed for a straightforward extension to preserve predictability. Labor unions pulled in the other direction: Brian Bryant, president of the International Association of Machinists, said the agreement must fix broken incentives, adding that "workers are still watching their jobs leave."
The first tests come quickly. US officials plan to meet Mexican counterparts the week of July 20, with rules of origin, aerospace, intellectual property and water issues on the agenda. Talks with Canada are expected to follow; Trump has separately criticized Prime Minister Mark Carney's government over its openness to Chinese investment, one of several irritants in a relationship already strained by tariff disputes.
For Mexico and Canada, which send the bulk of their exports to the American market, the calculus is uncomfortable. Both governments spent months lobbying for renewal, and both now face annual reviews in which Washington holds most of the leverage. The agreement remains fully in force in the meantime — tariff schedules, dispute panels and all — but its long-term survival is no longer the default. It is now something the three countries must actively negotiate, year after year, against a 2036 clock.