The United Nations Security Council has warned of an "imminent risk of mass atrocities" in the Sudanese city of El Obeid, demanding that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces halt a military build-up that aid officials fear is the prelude to a ground assault. The warning, echoed by dozens of governments, has put a spotlight on one of the most dangerous flashpoints in a civil war that has already become the world's largest displacement crisis.
El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, sits at the junction of the highways linking Sudan's front lines to Khartoum and the Nile Valley, making it a strategic prize in the war between the army, known as the Sudanese Armed Forces, and the RSF. The city has endured siege-like conditions for more than 18 months. In recent days the RSF has redeployed fighters and dozens of armored vehicles toward its approaches, and stepped up a campaign of drone strikes that has intensified since June 10 to a tempo not seen since March.
The humanitarian stakes are stark. Roughly 500,000 civilians are believed to be in and around the city, including more than 100,000 people already displaced by earlier fighting. Ten consecutive days of drone strikes have killed at least 50 civilians across El Obeid and North Kordofan and damaged civilian infrastructure, according to figures cited at the United Nations, while strikes on fuel depots have choked the supply lines the army depends on to hold the city.
Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, warned that an imminent offensive risked grave violations of international law against a population that has already suffered through a prolonged siege. His office and the Security Council pointed to the RSF's record elsewhere — most notably the mass killings documented after the fall of other cities — as reason to fear what an assault on El Obeid could bring.
The diplomatic pressure has been unusually broad. A statement delivered by Norway on behalf of a Coalition for Atrocity Prevention and Justice for Sudan — whose members include Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sierra Leone — was joined by 21 additional countries, warning that the RSF could escalate at any moment. The breadth of the appeal underscored alarm that El Obeid could become the next site of large-scale civilian killing.
Sudan's war erupted in April 2023 out of a power struggle between the army chief and the RSF commander, and has since fractured the country, driven famine in several regions and displaced more than ten million people. Both sides have been accused of targeting civilians, but the RSF's drone campaign has marked an escalation in the conflict's reach, allowing it to strike deep into army-held territory.
International leverage remains limited. The RSF has continued to receive external support — monitors have tracked flights carrying suspected weapons shipments routed through Chad and Libya — and previous Security Council appeals have not halted offensives elsewhere. With the rainy season approaching and humanitarian access already severely constrained, aid agencies warn that an assault could cut off the remaining lifelines to a trapped population.
For now, the warnings are an attempt to deter an attack before it begins. Whether they carry enough weight to change the calculus of a force that has pressed ahead through past condemnations is the question hanging over El Obeid — and over the roughly half a million people inside it.