Colorado River 2027
August 16 – September 24, 2026 Updated Sep 24
Every published chapter of The Fold's coverage of Colorado River 2027, in one place — oldest to newest, updated as the story develops.
Reclamation’s projection for Lake Mead on 1 January 2027 fell 19 feet in a single edition. The rulebook that would have turned that into a water cut expires first
Twelve consecutive 24-Month Studies show the Bureau of Reclamation’s forecast for the date that sets Lower Basin shortage tiers. It dropped 19.33 feet between the April and May editions — and the 2007 guidelines that gave the number its force run out on 31 December.
Reclamation's two official August 24-Month Studies disagree about the 1,010 ft trigger. The 6.0 maf run bottoms at 1,005.63 ft, the 7.0 maf run at 1,013.92 ft
Reclamation published the August 2026 24-Month Study as two simultaneous official reports. The 6.0 maf Lake Powell run puts Lake Mead at 1,005.63 ft in July 2027, below the 1,010 ft consultation trigger written into the new 2027-2028 guidelines; the 7.0 maf run bottoms at 1,013.92 ft and stays clear.
Lake Mead ended August at its lowest level since 1937. Reclamation's two September studies still disagree about its 1,010 ft trigger
Reclamation's own records put Lake Mead at 1,038.83 ft on 31 August, below the July 2022 low of 1,040.92 ft and the lowest month-end reading since March 1937. Its September 24-Month Study, again issued as two official runs, has the 6.0 maf run below the 1,010 ft consultation line in June to August 2027 and the 7.0 maf run clear.