The 2026 World Cup reaches its round of 16 this weekend, and Sunday brings the two matches most of the tournament will be watching: Mexico against England at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, and Brazil against Norway across the country in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Both are win-or-go-home, the first knockout Sunday of a tournament that has already run three weeks across the United States, Mexico and Canada.

Mexico arrive at the Azteca unbeaten and unscored-upon on home soil, having closed the group stage and a 2-0 win over Ecuador without conceding. England reached the last 16 the harder way, edging DR Congo 2-1. The two have met nine times, but only once before at a World Cup — a 2-0 England win in the group stage of the 1966 tournament it went on to win — which makes Sunday's meeting at Mexico's national stadium the more storied fixture on paper and the more raucous in fact.

Brazil, the tournament's most-backed side, take on a Norway team appearing in the knockout rounds for the first time in a generation. Brazil advanced past Japan 2-1 in the round of 32; Norway, powered by its front line, has been among the surprises of the group stage. The winner moves into a quarterfinal bracket that is steadily shedding its favorites.

The knockouts opened on Saturday, and they opened brutally for the hosts. Morocco dismantled Canada 3-0 to send one of the three home nations out of its own tournament, extending a run of African results that has been a defining thread of 2026. Hours later in Philadelphia, France beat Paraguay 1-0, Kylian Mbappé converting a 70th-minute penalty to settle a tight match; France next play Morocco in Boston on July 9.

That leaves two of the three co-hosts alive. Mexico carry the weight of the Azteca on Sunday, and the United States — whose progress The Fold has tracked from the June 12 opener at SoFi Stadium through a group-stage title and a round-of-32 win — face Belgium on Monday in the last of the round-of-16 ties. Canada's exit means the tournament can no longer end with all three organizers standing.

The rest of the bracket fills in over the next three days: Portugal and Spain, Argentina and Egypt, Switzerland and Colombia all play their way toward a quarterfinal round that begins later in the week. For now the tournament has done what the round of 16 always does — turned a sprawling group stage into a short list of teams that can still win it.