Gold rebounded toward $4,350 an ounce on Wednesday, recovering most of a sharp slide triggered by the US-Iran ceasefire as investors positioned for Kevin Warsh's first interest-rate decision as Federal Reserve chair. Front-month futures changed hands near $4,360, a third consecutive daily gain.
The metal had tumbled in the days after Washington and Tehran agreed to halt their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a de-escalation that pulled oil to a two-month low and eased the inflation fears that had underpinned safe-haven demand. Gold futures fell to roughly $4,090 on June 11, their weakest in about a month, before bargain-hunting and renewed bets on eventual Fed easing reversed the move.
From that trough, gold has climbed about 7%. The recovery tracks a broader recalibration in markets: with the war-driven spike in energy costs fading, traders have trimmed expectations for how hawkish the Fed needs to be, a shift that lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Attention now turns to the Fed. The June 16-17 meeting is the first chaired by Warsh, and markets price roughly a 97% probability that policymakers leave the benchmark rate unchanged. The closely watched detail will be the committee's projections: a median pointing to a steady hold could give gold room to extend gains, while any tilt toward a rate increase later this year would likely cap the advance.
Spot prices have mirrored the futures move, trading above $4,300 through the week. Gold remains far above where it began the year, supported over the longer run by central-bank buying, elevated government debt, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty even as the immediate Middle East flashpoint cools.
For now, the rebound underscores how quickly sentiment has flipped from war premium to rate watch. Whether gold pushes back toward the records it set earlier in 2026 may hinge less on the Strait of Hormuz than on the message Warsh delivers in his debut as chair.