South Africa's parliament will on Tuesday formally revive the impeachment inquiry into Cyril Ramaphosa over his handling of the Phala Phala robbery, an investigation the African National Congress had spent nearly four years working to keep buried. The speaker of the National Assembly, acting on a Constitutional Court order issued last week, will submit an advisory report to lawmakers as the basis for a committee probe.
The case turns on roughly $580,000 in cash that was stolen in February 2020 from sofas at Ramaphosa's Phala Phala game farm in Limpopo. The president has consistently said the money was the proceeds of a buffalo sale to a Sudanese businessman, denies any wrongdoing and has accused political opponents of orchestrating the leak. The court's ruling sidesteps that account, focusing on whether the conduct after the theft — using state security personnel to pursue the thieves without informing police — meets the constitutional threshold for "serious violation of the law".
Ramaphosa's political authority is the immediate question. The ANC governs in a Government of National Unity with the market-friendly Democratic Alliance and several smaller parties; markets have priced the arrangement on the assumption that Ramaphosa, a 73-year-old former unionist and mining executive, remains its anchor. A forced exit would put the coalition's survival, and the country's already strained fiscal trajectory, into immediate play.
The MK Party of former president Jacob Zuma — which finished second in the May 2024 general election — said on Sunday that Ramaphosa "cannot remain in office while facing severe misconduct allegations" and that it would file a parallel motion of no confidence in the National Assembly this week. The Economic Freedom Fighters welcomed the court ruling and called the inquiry "long overdue".
Inside the ANC, the picture is more divided. Two factions, broadly aligned with Deputy President Paul Mashatile and Treasurer-General Gwen Ramokgopa, have for the first time publicly called on Ramaphosa to consider stepping aside before the inquiry is completed. The Daily Maverick reported over the weekend that an emergency meeting of the party's national working committee was being arranged.
The rand traded marginally weaker against the dollar in early Monday trade but the JSE All Share index held steady, with analysts pointing to the speed at which any transition would have to be organised. South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago, in a separate interview, warned that "political noise should not be confused with economic policy", urging foreign investors to focus on inflation and growth fundamentals.
Phala Phala has dogged Ramaphosa since the original Section 89 panel found in 2022 that he may have violated the constitution. The ANC defeated the resulting impeachment motion in the National Assembly that December, with Ramaphosa surviving on a 214-148 vote. The Constitutional Court last week ruled that the National Assembly's refusal to act on the panel's findings was itself unlawful.
For Ramaphosa the immediate decision is whether to fight the inquiry from the presidency, as he survived in 2022, or step aside while it proceeds — an option two senior ANC figures said was being privately discussed. A definitive answer is unlikely before the committee meets, but the political calendar, with provincial conferences scheduled for July, is short.