Nvidia is set to report quarterly results on May 20, with analysts looking for earnings per share of $1.76 — up nearly 117 per cent on the year-ago quarter — and revenue of $78.5 billion, up 78 per cent year-on-year. Goldman Sachs has flagged it expects a "beat and raise" outcome.
The single biggest question for investors is whether chief executive Jensen Huang will lift the $1 trillion data-centre revenue guidance offered at the company's GTC developer conference. Several customers, including Microsoft and Oracle, have raised capital-expenditure plans since.
Microsoft's decision to lift its calendar-2026 capex plan to $190 billion — well above the $154 billion previously expected — has been widely interpreted as supportive of the Nvidia thesis. Amazon, Alphabet and Meta also outlined large infrastructure programmes in their April earnings calls.
Supply remains the main constraint. Hopper-generation accelerator allocations are largely sold out through 2026, with the company beginning to ship its Blackwell-class systems at scale earlier this year. TSMC capacity for advanced packaging is the most-watched bottleneck.
Bear-case voices argue that hyperscaler capex cannot keep growing indefinitely and that AI-monetisation lags will eventually force buyers to slow purchases. The Nvidia stock has nonetheless extended its run, with shares now up roughly 35 per cent year-to-date.
Investor positioning into the print appears more cautious than during prior cycles, options-market data suggest, which some traders read as setting up the possibility of a sharp post-earnings move in either direction.