Bitcoin traded at roughly $80,700 in Sunday's relatively thin weekend session, up 0.4 per cent over 24 hours and around 28 per cent above the early-February lows near $63,000. Market capitalisation sits at $1.62 trillion; the broader crypto market cap edged from $2.67 trillion to $2.68 trillion in the same window.
The recent leg up has been driven less by retail and more by a sustained run of inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs. May 5 saw $467 million in net inflows — a fourth consecutive positive day — and a later session in the week reached $532 million. Tom Lee of Fundstrat said a monthly close above $76,000 would, in his framework, formally confirm a new bull market.
Despite the headline strength, breadth was negative on Sunday: roughly 80 per cent of the top-200 tokens lost value. eCash was the day's largest gainer at +23.6 per cent, followed by Jasmy at +14.9 per cent. Ether and Solana were both fractionally lower.
The macro backdrop is mixed. The dollar index slipped to 97.93 after Friday's stronger-than-expected April US payrolls print of 115,000, and the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.38 per cent. Easier dollar conditions tend to support bitcoin; the unresolved Iran-US war and the prospect of a memorandum to lift the naval blockade are the dominant macro swing factors.
Polymarket contracts on bitcoin's May high have repriced over the weekend, with implied probabilities of a print above $85,000 now outweighing the alternatives. CoinDesk analysts cited three on-chain signals — long-term holder accumulation, exchange outflow trend and a steep Coinbase premium — as consistent with a move toward that level.
A close above $82,000 on Monday would mark the highest weekly close since the late-2024 cycle peak. The largest near-term risk traders flagged is a stalled or collapsed Iran-US deal, which would push oil higher and weigh on risk assets across the board.