Bitcoin traded near $81,022 on Thursday morning in New York after rejecting an attempt to break above $82,500, holding within a tight range that has prevailed since the cryptocurrency rebounded from $63,000 in early February.
Analysts at several research desks said three indicators are aligning to suggest a possible move toward $85,000: improving funding rates on perpetual futures, accelerating spot accumulation by ETF wrappers and a flattening of the realised-cap-to-market-cap ratio.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat said in a note that a monthly close above $76,000 in May would, in his framework, "confirm the new bull market". Bitcoin has not closed below that level since the start of April.
The token has fallen about $1,300 from a day earlier and remains roughly $16,000 below its peak from a year ago. Ethereum traded around $3,400, also sitting just below technical resistance.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract net inflows, with the largest US-listed funds adding approximately $480 million collectively over the past five trading sessions, according to issuer-published flow data.
Macro conditions remain supportive in the short term: a softer dollar, stable two-year Treasury yields and the prospect of an end to the Iran conflict have cushioned risk assets generally. A reversal in any of those legs could pressure crypto disproportionately.