The federal Coalition unveiled the most detailed migration policy of its current term on Thursday, formally linking annual net overseas migration to a moving average of housing completions and restricting access to several Commonwealth welfare payments for new permanent residents during their first four years in Australia.
Shadow immigration minister Dan Tehan said the proposal would "restore the social licence" for the migration programme by tying intake to "the country's actual capacity to house and absorb people." Under the formula, net migration in any given year would not exceed the rolling three-year average of new housing completions plus a buffer for population replacement.
The Albanese government, which delivered the 2026-27 federal budget on Tuesday evening, said the proposal was "unworkable" and "designed for a slogan, not a programme." The budget assumed net overseas migration would total 1.22 million between the financial years ending 2026 and 2030, a figure already softer than the post-pandemic peak but well above the Coalition's implied target.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers, speaking in Canberra, said the welfare restriction in particular was "a return to two-track citizenship" and would discourage skilled migration at a moment when Australia is competing with Canada and the United Kingdom for the same talent pool. Independent economists at the Grattan Institute said the housing link, while politically resonant, would in practice export migration volatility into the labour market.
The Coalition's push lands as housing affordability has hardened into the dominant Australian political issue. National property prices remain near record highs despite a soft retreat from late-2025 peaks, and approvals data has been below the government's own targets for four consecutive quarters.
Opposition leader Sussan Ley, who took over the Liberal leadership after the 2025 election loss, framed the migration package as the "first major" of a series of cost-of-living-anchored policies the Coalition will release ahead of the next election. The package will form part of legislation the opposition intends to bring before the Senate in coming weeks, where the Albanese government does not hold a majority.